Okay guys, let's talk about something that's been on my mind all season. It's 2026, and this Premier League campaign has been absolutely WILD for goals ⚽️. We're seeing scorelines that would've been unthinkable a few years back. But you know what they say—for every goal scored, there's a defensive lapse somewhere. So, I dove deep into the Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) data for 2026 to see which teams are genuinely solid at the back and which ones are basically holding the door open for opponents. The results? Some are exactly what you'd expect, and others are total surprises. Let's get into it!
First up, let's talk about the team setting the standard. Arsenal under Mikel Arteta are on a MISSION this year. We all know about Saka and Odegaard tearing it up going forward, but can we PLEASE appreciate that backline? 🙌 Their xGA of just 1.9 in 2026 is the best in the league. They've actually conceded only 3 goals, which means they're outperforming their expected numbers. That's the sign of a truly elite defense. The Saliba-Gabriel partnership is just immovable. It feels like they've been playing together for a decade. This solidity is the foundation for their title charge. It's not just flashy football; it's built on rock.
Now, here's a story of resilience. Everton. Given everything they've been through, their defensive record is nothing short of heroic. Sean Dyche has built a fortress at Goodison. Their xGA of 7.7 is among the best outside the top four, and they've only let in 6 actual goals. The Branthwaite-Tarkowski partnership is a masterclass in old-school, no-nonsense defending. They head everything, block everything, and organize the whole unit. In a relegation scrap, this kind of defensive resolve is priceless. They prove that you don't need to spend a fortune to be hard to beat.
Speaking of battles at the bottom, Nottingham Forest present a really curious case. On paper, their xGA of 8.2 isn't terrible—it's actually better than teams like Spurs! But here's the brutal truth: they've conceded 13 goals in 2026. That's a massive underperformance. It suggests there's either a serious issue with their goalkeeper (sorry, Matt Turner 😬) or they're just incredibly unlucky. Every mistake seems to get punished. For Nuno, fixing this disconnect between expected and actual goals conceded is the key to survival. The structure might be okay, but the execution in key moments is failing them.
Over at Liverpool, it's a tale of two stories. Going forward, they're as terrifying as ever. But defensively? There are cracks. An xGA of 10.0 is higher than you'd expect for a title contender. The injury crisis at the back has been a nightmare—losing Alisson, Matip, and Alexander-Arnold at various points has forced Klopp to rely heavily on kids like Quansah and Bradley. And you know what? They've actually done pretty well! The fact they've only conceded 9 goals (better than their xGA) shows those young players are stepping up. It's not perfect, but it's a testament to the squad's spirit in Klopp's final season.
Then we have Manchester United. Oh, United. The stats make for grim reading. Their xGA of 10.3 is in the bottom half of the league. The midfield offers zero protection, so the defense is constantly exposed. They've faced more shots than almost anyone. The only silver lining? Andre Onana has actually saved them from an even worse fate, with only 9 goals actually conceded. But relying on your keeper to constantly bail you out isn't a sustainable strategy. Injuries to key defenders like Martinez haven't helped, but the systemic issues are glaring. Ten Hag has a massive job on his hands.
And finally, the biggest shocker of 2026: Newcastle United. Remember last season when they were the defensive darlings of the league? Yeah, that's gone. Completely. Their xGA of 20.5 is the WORST in the Premier League this year. They've actually conceded 20 goals. That 4-4 draw with Luton wasn't a fun anomaly; it was a symptom. Losing Nick Pope in goal has been catastrophic, and the whole defensive structure has collapsed. The high press is getting bypassed easily, and they look vulnerable every single time the opponent attacks. From Champions League to defensive chaos—it's been a brutal fall.
So, what's the takeaway from all this xGA data?
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Elite & Efficient: Arsenal are in a league of their own defensively. They're organized, talented, and clinical in stopping chances.
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Organized & Resilient: Everton and a few others show that a well-drilled, committed unit can defy expectations.
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Unlucky or Flawed?: Teams like Forest show a good xGA but terrible actual results. Is it bad goalkeeping or just terrible luck? 🤔
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Surviving the Crisis: Liverpool's ability to still get results with a patched-up defense is champion mentality.
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Systemic Issues: United's problems start way before the ball reaches their defenders. The midfield is a highway.
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The Great Collapse: Newcastle's defensive identity has completely vanished. It's the most dramatic decline in the league.
In a season defined by goals, your defense is what ultimately defines your ceiling. The data doesn't lie! Who do you think has the best/worst defense right now? Let me know below! 👇 #PremierLeague #FootballAnalysis #xG #Defense #2026Season #EPL
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